Chaos Theory, according to the Fractal Foundation, is “the science of surprises, of the nonlinear and the unpredictable.” One major principle of true chaos is the Butterfly Effect, in which a butterfly could beat its wings once in America and cause a major typhoon in the Philippines. A single small event could cause a massively different and unexpected outcome in the distant future. This analysis will examine the hypothetical case of Hernan Cortes failing in his conquest of the Aztec empire in 1521, and describe a reasonable timeline of events which occur in the following centuries. This is an explanation of how the past could have potentially played out without a Spanish conquest of the Aztecs; a mere single timeline in the infinite possibilities of Chaos Theory. 
    The date is June 30, 1521, commonly known now as the “Noche Triste,” the Sad Night.  After the death of the emperor Montezuma and a lack of supplies, the Spanish expedition is forced to leave the island-city of Tenochtitlan. During the escape, the natives spring their trap and begin their assault. Thousands of Spaniards fall to the ground with arrow wounds and blows from Aztec clubs. In true history, Hernan Cortes makes it safely out of the city and miles away where he once again grows his strength. In this timeline, Cortes isn’t as fortunate. The leader of the Spanish expedition falls dead after an arrow strikes him in the side and two more follow through his throat. So begins the new timeline of the world. 
    Soon after, the Spanish ranks are broken and the men are captured, sacrificed, or left to flee to the surrounding countryside. In the following months the Aztec cities and the nearby Confederacy of Tlaxcala, which previously assisted the expedition in their conquest, both adopt the new European technology left behind from the failed invasion. Steel weaponry, horses, and powder cannons become essential in the lives of every Native American in the area, whether for defense, tools for construction and farming, or transportation. This technological boost greatly enhances the production and human capacity in the native nations. However, disease spread by the Europeans during close contact and warfare will still take its toll. A massive demographic shift will occur in Central America, causing a destabilization of the local economies and political systems and plunging both the Aztec empire and Tlaxcalan Confederacy into a Dark Age. Political ties dissolve and the once united Aztecs are nothing more than a series of warring city-states, fighting over resources and land while disease ravages the land. 
    Although the Spanish conquest is stalled for the present time, the European culture and religion does not fail to enter the heartlands of the native civilization. Spanish Catholic priests and missionaries spill into the towns and cities of Central America, establishing churches and chapels. Many natives accepted this new religion as a way to cut ties with other sacrificial city-states and gain hope through the struggle of the American Dark Age. Along with the missionaries, Spanish traders come to the nearby Tlaxcalan city-states who by this time have control over the Central American Gulf Coast. The traders arrive from the Caribbean colonies in search of acquiring precious metals (such as silver) in exchange for advanced weaponry (such as powder guns). At about this time, the Aztec cities unify under a common great leader Tlaloc, who sees that the only way the empire could be successful is if they work together against outside threats. Along with their unification and seeing the Tlaxcalans trade for advanced guns, the Aztecs trade with North American colonies of the French, Dutch, and British in order to bolster their defense. Silver flows out of Central America through trade routes like a river. 
    At about this time, the Incan civil war has ended and stability has once again returned to its lands under the King Atahualpa II. The Spanish, not having as great of access to the South American Andes, were previously unable to conquer the lands of the Incas. Now that an alliance-like relationship has grown between the Spanish and the Tlaxcalan cities, conquistadors are capable of traversing across southern Central America (which the Tlaxcalan state has grown to conquer and where they have formed an alliance with the secluded Mayan empire). The Spanish begin to slowly invade the lands of the Incas, taking command of any silver mine in the area. The Spanish use the Incan mit’a system to produce massive amounts of silver with the forced labor of conquered natives. Looking to gain further trading opportunities in the Americas, the Dutch establish a large trading post on the coastline of South America, just south of the location of the Spanish conquest. The Dutch use this colony to sell weapons and food to both the Spanish forces and the native tribes. Eventually, the Spanish succeed in their lengthy conquest of the Incas, with both sides losing many lives and resources. 
    As Catholicism weaves through the citizens of the newly reformed Tlaxcalan monarchy, Protestantism begins to spread throughout the Aztec empire due to its influential Dutch trading partners. Along with political reforms, both the Aztecs and Tlaxcalans form new state religions of Protestantism and Catholicism respectively, social reforms which are called for by the citizenry (who now have greater access to learning how to read and write due to religious influence and schools), and military reforms which include the establishment of national navies and armies. 
    Slightly before the end of the altered 17th century, the Spanish labor system in their new colony after the conquest of the Incas becomes harsher and more demanding for the native population. One year of previously required mit’a service has changed into permanent slavery for many Inca natives, as the Spanish demand for silver grows ever higher when at lower prices. Due to this treatment, the native population attempts and succeeds in a massive rebellion, supplied by the Dutch traders, to remove the majority of Spaniards from their land. Once their capital at Cuzco has been reclaimed, the Incas establish a loose monarchy under the rebellion’s leader, Quispe. As the world shifts into the 18th century, the Incas begin to consolidate their power with a system of alliances and conquerings of nearby tribes in South America. At this point, the new empire is known across the Americas as the Peruva: the dominant nation in South America. 
    Now entering the 18th century, the hypothetical world is still quite similar to how it appears in the true timeline of events, minus the Aztec, Tlaxcala/Maya, and Peruva empires in the Americas. From this point forward, outside nations other than the Spanish begin to be involved in the developments and conflicts in the Americas. Such nations include the British and French, who previously only had colonies in the New England area and the Louisiana area, respectively. However, the French have an overall greater respect for the free states of the natives in the south, while the British begin to view them as a threat to future expansion. When the British begin to covet the lands of the French colonies in the Ohio River Valley and the Aztec lands beyond, France forms a formal alliance with the Aztec state in a defensive manner. The French still lose due to exceptional leadership and naval power on the part of the British, but the Aztecs now see the British as a threat to all natives in the Americas. This feeling of danger alerts the Aztecs, and causes the present monarch to cut all relations with the British while extending friendly communication with the northern Apache and Navajo tribes.
    The American Revolution occurs much in the same fashion as in true history, after the Enlightenment in Europe. Seeing the British colonies successfully rebel, the Spanish immediately cut most relations with the Tlaxcalans, with fears of a possible invasion. At this point, the silver trade has dwindled to a halt, with the luxury good already having devastated the markets of the Old World. Also at this time, the Aztec and Tlaxcalan empires begin to acknowledge the lack of technological advances or modern technology circulating within their lands due to the abrupt cutoff of trade with Europeans. The Tlaxcalans, under the orders of a militaristic monarch Huitzilopochtli, launch a surprise invasion of the remaining Spanish colonies on the mainland Americas, in the hopes of obtaining new technological insight and bringing down a major threat to their nation. The invasion catches the Spanish completely by surprise, due to their previous positive relations with the Tlaxcalans, and they retreat to their island colonies in the Caribbean.
    Now that the Spanish power has waned in the Americas, the Aztecs and Tlaxcala/Maya begin to have disagreements and frequent skirmishes on their borders. This is due to a difference in religion (Protestant vs. Catholic), view of the new United States (the Aztecs are quite favorable of the US, while the Tlaxcalans feel threatened), and past conflicts. During the border claims and territorial shifts, no major war breaks out at the time being, for fear of allowing a quick destruction by the remaining European powers in the Americas. Instead, European Enlightenment ideas spread to the American nations, causing reforms of political structure after small periods of unrest in the previously monarchic states. The Aztec empire adopts a system similar to the United States, with a republic of representatives and separate states, and from now on is known as the Free Aztec States. Meanwhile, the Tlaxcalans have a massive overthrow of their cruel and unpopular monarch, replacing him with a limited Constitutional Monarchy and a Council of Elders. The Mayans remain fairly the same as always, now in the total shadow of the massive and ever-growing military complex of the Tlaxcalans. Lastly, the recently conflict-free monarchy of Peruva has developed into a prosperous Merchant Republic, with a unified citizenry and a rapidly growing wealth due to trade.
    The 18th century ends with the quick removal of Spanish rule in the Americas after the Revolution of Haiti (which was at the time owned by the Spanish), The Latin-American Revolutions throughout other areas of Hispaniola, and a final push by the Tlaxcalan navy to remove any trace of Spanish in the area. The control of the Caribbean islands and Florida was divided among the Aztecs and the Tlaxcalans. The Aztecs claimed Florida while the Tlaxcalans claimed Hispaniola, both in an effort to gain a window and point of access to the Old World. 
    Throughout this alternate history, many events of the Old World remained historically accurate. From now on, however, the new societies of the Americas have an opening into the outside world, and the events of history will become greatly altered in the upcoming centuries. The end of the 18th century marks the beginning of new world relations and industrialization. However, the previous alternate history was due to the simple failure of Spain to conquer the Aztecs, which led to the Spanish losing grasp over the Americas as a whole. The hypothetical history that was just described is a single possibility of a near infinite amount, thanks to the Chaos Theory and the Butterfly Effect. In short, the fate of the Americas was changed by the death of a single man: Hernan Cortes.